Pakistan continues to be amidst its trademark political instability and near anarchy. Following months of tension and well past constitutional deadline, the military-dominated establishment begrudgingly allowed elections on February 8, 2024. However, instead of ushering in a semblance of normalcy through some kind of political order, the election outcome has emerged as a new challenge for Pakistan. While it was made apparent that military’s blessing stood with Sharif and Bhuttoo-Zardari families, the overwhelming popular support for the battered party of incarcerated Imran Khan derailed establishment plans of a select government in Islamabad. As such, the otherwise powerful military establishment appears to have been caught off-guard and in a web of its own making as the unfolding events have made it implicit that the establishment might have lost the plot of it play.
For months, amidst speculations by experts and media alike, including international media, it was a foregone conclusion that the electoral exercise was being orchestrated by Pakistan’s deep state to reinstall and impose Nawaz Sharif for the record fourth time on the people of the county. The media narrative was set to insinuate that the establishment had predetermined the fate of elections. For instance, the establishment removed all the legal obstacles to secure the return of Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan from his years of self-exile in London following his indictment in several corruption scams that had earned him collective 14 years of imprisonment. “Sharif’s return and the subsequent change in his legal fortunes, with convictions against him dropped and restrictions against contesting elections removed were made possible only because the military had decided to back him in the 2024 vote,” contends a report in Al Jazeera English.
The establishment’s narrative building exercise was merely a passive exercise, but was bolstered by its systematic actions to undermine the credibility of its bête noire in Imran Khan and render his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party incapacitated to even participate in the elections. As the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) set the polling date of February 8, 2024, in its December 16, 2023, announcement, the army-controlled Anwarul Haq Kakkar led caretaker government, swiftly initiated a series of actions aimed at impeding PTI’s ability to meaningfully participate in the electoral process.
As a first measure, on December 22, 2023, the ECP delivered a formidable blow to Imran Khan’s party by declaring Tehreek-e-Insaf’s intraparty elections as “unconstitutional” by charging it of being violative of “our directions.” The poll body consequently stripped PTI of its iconic symbol ‘bat’, seen as a direct assault on its very political identity to dent its electoral prospects and relegate it to the margins of the Pakistan’s political landscape forever.
The judicial jigsaw that followed showed how the establishment leveraged the personal disliking of Chief Justice of Pakistan, Qazi Faez Isa, against Imran Khan to uphold ECP’s decision of stripping PTI of its election symbol, a ruling earlier junked by the Peshawar High Court (PHC). Notably, the PHC’s ruling on January 9, 2024, unequivocally adjudicated Election Commission’s ruling as “illegal, without any lawful authority and of no legal effect” while reinstating PTIs entitlement to its election symbol. However, against these assertions, the Supreme Court’s subsequent endorsement of the ECP’s decision on January 13, 2024, cast doubt on the judiciary’s impartiality. The Chief Justice Isa-led three-member bench dismissed allegations against the ECP and ruled that the poll body was neither “victimising PTI” nor acted with “mala fide of ulterior reason” to discriminate any political party. For the Pakistan Supreme Court to overrule the PHC judgement that upheld ‘people’s right to choose their candidates by providing the political parties their symbols,’ it raised serious doubts against the impartiality of the judiciary in a country had been shadow ruled by army for decades. Many observers believed that the ruling was driven less by considerations of justice and evidence and more by Chief Justice Qazi Isa’s personal animosity towards Imran Khan. Insiders give credence to the assertions of gross partiality of Pakistan’s judiciary, especially at the whims of the country military dominated establishment.
Despite the establishment’s efforts to neutralize PTI, including stripping it of its electoral identity, denying it avenues of electoral campaigning including disrupting internet forums and imprisoning its leadership, the election results where the symbol less party appeared marching to decisive victory before establishment’s match fixing demonstrated the failure of these tactics to control the political narrative. The unfolding events since elections have demonstrated that the tactics employed by the deep state helmed by Pak Army Chief have not only proven ineffective but become emblematic of the colossal inefficiency of this most powerful institution of Pakistan. It also symbolises a notable shift on the domestic political landscape which appears to have transformed into an unpredictable sphere from the one where military has traditionally wielded power with ruthlessness and yet with ease.
Though Pakistan Army has forced upon a favourable government in Islamabad to provide a civilian façade to its shadowy rule, its inability to enforce a pre-decided outcome has rendered its limitations deep exposed, something that the democratic forces of the country could exploit to wean the civilian executive away from military’s clutches towards the democratic consolidation of the country. The manner that the popular sentiment is shaping makes it implicit that the unbridled popular legitimacy of this earlier considered holier-than-thou institution despite its oppressive structures of dominance stands greatly dented.
As Pakistan navigates this turbulent period, the fallout from the elections serves as a stark reminder of the shifting sands of power and the evolving dynamics between the military, political actors, and the populace. The unfolding events have effectively breached the so-called invincibility fort of Pakistan Army and checkmated its unbridled political power entrenchment and any effort to re-establish that writ risks descent to further anarchy and overt military rule. Come what may, the sore loser is Pakistan military establishment.