Javeed Beigh
“Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel prizes – one for peace and one for science” – John F Kennedy.
Rivers of Kashmir are intricately linked to not just India and Pakistan, but also to the history of mankind itself. Originating in the Tibetan plateau, Indus River travels 3200 km before emptying into the Arabian sea. On the banks of this river, the great Indus Valley civilisation originated and thrived. Since then, centuries have past, nations were formed, boundaries were drawn and wars were fought, yet the claim to this holy river system is still disputed. The Indus has five main tributaries. The Jhelum River, the largest of these originates in the valley of Kashmir. The Chenab flows mainly through Jammu region of the Union territory of J&K before entering Punjab. The remaining three tributaries namely Ravi, Sutlej and Beas nourish Himachal Pradesh before entering Punjab. Both the nations India and Pakistan depend on Indus River system for agriculture and hydro electricity. Even with the current alignment of Line of Control, India is the upper riparian state and has the means to control the inflow of water into Pakistan who is dependent on Indus for survival and sustenance. Even though origin of the Kashmir conflict was political, the sustenance of the proxy war in Kashmir by Pakistan is partly for the Indus, because accepting Kashmir to be the integral part of India defacto takes away Pakistan’s claim for the Indus.
IWT was signed by Shri Jawaharlal Nehru, then Prime Minister of India and Field Marshal Ayub Khan, then President of Pakistan in Karachi in September 1960. IWT was brokered by the World Bank and mediated by Eugene R. Black, then President of the World Bank. The IWT provided for one of the most comprehensive dispute resolution mechanisms, wherein eastern rivers were allotted to India (Sutlej, Ravi and Beas) and western rivers to Pakistan (Jhelum, Chenab and Indus). However, India has limited consumptive rights over the rivers allotted to Pakistan. Under the IWT, India can undertake projects on the western rivers for general conservation, flood control, irrigation and hydropower generation after duly informing Pakistan of the same. Pakistan’s objection would render it a matter of dispute to be settled either by negotiations or by a neutral expert, or by arbitration. Three members, one from India, one from Pakistan and the third member by mutual agreement or an International Court of Justice appointee in lieu would be the arbitrators. Any unresolved “question” between the two parties through the Permanent Indus Commission becomes a “difference” to be referred to a neutral expert, who is appointed by the two countries, and failing that, the World Bank. If the neutral expert’s recommendations are unacceptable to either of the parties, the matter would be treated as a “disputed” and it would be referred to a Court of Arbitration established by the World Bank, along with other institutions such as the Secretary General of the United Nations.
Water sharing between the two neighbours have survived three bloody battles in 1965, 1971 and 1999. However, recent issues have brought the sustainability of IWT under scrutiny. So far 27 Hydro-projects undertaken by the Indian government in the UT of Jammu and Kashmir have been questioned by Pakistan. This has resulted in delays in implementation. Decades of delays have caused prohibitive increases in costs and stalling of development in Kashmir. Three such main projects are Baglihar Hydel Power project (BHP), Tulbul Navigation Project (TNP) and Kishenganga Project. BHP is a 900 MW project on the Chenab River in Doda district of J & K. Pakistan objected that BHP will affect the downstream flow of Chenab and is capable of causing floods in riparian areas. It was the first issue which was referred to international arbitration which ruled in the favour of India. On the other hand, TNP was a navigation project, originally envisaged to construct 439 feet long and 40 feet wide barrage at the mouth of Wullar Lake, near Sopore town, Kashmir. The aim of the project was to maximise the utilisation of India’s largest fresh water Lake and make Jhelum navigable in summer by enhancing the currents. Pakistan opposed this project with tooth and nail claiming that TNP is in violation of IWT and the control of Jhelum’s flow can be utilised as a geo-strategic weapon. The barrage according to Pakistan will impede water flows into Upper Chenab and Lower Bari
Doab Canals. TNP issue could not be resolved through dialogue and the project got shelved since 1987. The third and most recent of the issues is Kishenganga project which entails 75-meter-high concrete dam at Gurez to store 140,000 MAF of water and divert part of the flow through 22 km tunnel bored into a mountain draining into Madmati Nalah which eventually empties into Wullar Lake. Inter tributary transfer is allowed in IWT, however, Pakistan contested that Kishenganga (also known as Neelum on the other side of LC) is a tributary that flows into Jhelum near Nowshera (close to Muzaffarabad) and the water is not transferred into the same tributary and the project has the potential of flushing Wullar Lake. It also contested that the project will affect the Neelum- Jhelum project undertaken by Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) which was falsely claimed to have commenced before Kishenganga project. Heeding to the objections raised by Pakistan, instead of a storage project India agreed to go ahead with a run way project and the construction started in 2007. However, Pakistan again took the case to international arbitration by the World bank under IWT in 2011. The arbitrators ruled the decision in favour of India and the hydro-electric power plant was completed in 2018.
The objections by Pakistan through IWT are adversely impacting the power requirement of Kashmir. The state has the potential of generating over 20,000 MW of hydro electricity. Bare minimum requirement for sustenance of the state is 1600 MW. The state is currently producing 1500 MW of which only 450 MW is generated by the state and the remaining by the Central Government. Inspite of having abundant resources, the state has to spend over 2000 crores for purchasing power from outside which otherwise could have been utilised for the holistic development of Kashmir. Most of these projects do not affect the overall quantum of water flowing to Pakistan, but Pakistan claims that they have the potential to be weaponised in case of a war. This is a contention without any concrete foundation, as such kind of warfare is prohibited under Geneva Convention. Also flooding of the rivers will affect the highly populated lower riparian areas of India as well. The real reason behind objections by Pakistan is to halt the economic progression in India especially Kashmir and to ensure that Kashmir remains an underdeveloped state: an ideal breeding ground for religious extremism, terrorism and proxy war.
