AR Bhat
“A layer beneath a layer, just like an onion; that’s Kashmir”, anyone who really knows Kashmir knows what it means. In third week of June 2008, Kashmir broke out in protests, starting in Ganderbal district over what was later named as Amarnath land row. Rapidly the protests spread to whole Kashmir valley, stretching till second week of September. With around 60 civilians killed and around 1500 injured. Protests of this nature and intensity were unprecedented not just for the millennials, who now dominate the political scene in Jammu and Kashmir but for the security personnel as well that clueless on how to control such large number of crowds; the paramilitary forces used what is often the last resort, live bullets. Around 600 of the 1500 injuries were bullet injuries. The protests toppled the state government, a coalition of Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party and Indian National Congress. Just two months later, while the situation was still not totally normal, in third week of November, the Assembly elections in the state took place. A voter turnout of 60.5%, 17% more than that of the previous assembly election was recorded bringing a coalition of Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and Indian Nation Congress in government. Just when the government was young, on 5th June 2009, the valley spiraled in protests again over Shopian rape and Murder case. Multiple deaths again with over 400 injured. The protests however died down in other parts of the valley around the end of June, but Shopian District kept on simmering with the protests till mid-October. Next year marking the beginning of a new decade was no different. An encounter that had taken place on 30th April that year raised strong suspicions of it being a staged encounter. Just about the same time as the preceding year, Downtown Srinagar broke into protests on June 11, beginning a new wave of protests all over the not just the Kashmir valley but parts of Jammu division as well. With around 120 civilians dead and thousands injured. The protests were compared to the earlier agitations more violent leading to multiple security forces casualties.
The protests later died down around September. Figures reveal that the next five years were the calmest since 1990. Calm set in after 2010, beginning an era of political conventions, skill development conclaves organized by Indian Army, multiple sports festivals by security forces and youth engagement programs. Four years later, when the state went for another Assembly election, the voter turnout broke all the past records. An unprecedented 65.23% voting percentage was recorded, a result vindicating the preceding period of peace. Next year although, after appearance of a poster of what is now called as Hizb Ul Mujahideen’s Burhan group sent security agencies in a tizzy, but did not affected the momentum that had set in vis a vis civilian spheres. The mainstream political activities and the youth engagement programs continued like the preceding years. Things changed the next year when on 8th July, the chief of Hizb Ul Mujahideen was neutralised in an operation in Anantnag district of Kashmir valley. Deadly protests engulfed the valley resulting in the killing of more than 120 civilians, injuring thousands. Ministry of Home affairs puts the number of security forces personnel injured at around 4000 with multiple fatalities reported as well. Houses of political workers including some ministers were attacked, some even set ablaze by the mob. A consecutive curfew of 53 days finally helped drop down the temperature, however the protests continued till February, the next year. The succeeding years saw an ‘on and off’ pattern of protests, with civilian casualties becoming a regular affair, disruptions by mobs in ongoing counter insurgency operations often leading to most of them. The engagement of youth by means of sports although engaged a substantial number of youngsters but not substantial enough to cool down the temperatures. It however laid a foundation of sports culture in the state that was earlier non-existent. In May 2018, the Bharatiya Janta Party led central government, as a confidence building suspended the counter Insurgency operations for a month, but the situation was too volatile that it was rendered unsuccessful in calming down any temperature, thereby finally leading to collapse of the Jammu Kashmir People’s Democratic Party and Bharatiya Janta Party’s coalition government. Next year, due to the ‘on and off’ cycle of violence, the voter turnout for Parliamentary elections in Jammu and Kashmir dropped to 44.97%, with the three Lok Sabha seats in Kashmir valley recording a voter turnout of just 19.3%, with Anantnag parliamentary constituency recording just 8.98% polling. In the month of August, the Bharatiya Janta Party led central government abrogated two articles of the Indian constitution that guaranteed Jammu and Kashmir a special status by passing the Jammu And Kashmir Reorganisation bill in the Parliament of India. The valley shut down as a means of protest but no violent incident like the past took place. The government had strategised a crowd control tactic. It put all the major mainstream opposition leaders in Jammu and Kashmir in either detention or house arrest and enforced a communication blockade. The communication blockade was removed in stages and valley reopened. Since then, the civilian casualties have come down and calm has set in. Counter insurgency operations go on without civilian resistance, unlike that in preceding years. Youth engagement, sports tournaments, peace conclaves organised by the government and security forces have intensified. Alternative mainstream political setups promoting youngsters have sprung up. Even some unprecedented moves that are seen pointing towards integration with the nation have taken place. Calm just like post 2010 till emergence of what is called as ‘New Age Militancy in J&K’ is restored. But what next is the question.
Those who know Kashmir know that the conflict here is just like a wave with trenches and peaks; bouts of calm and violence. The public perception that favoured India in 1947 Tribal Invasion, Pakistan’s Operation Giblartar, totally turned against it when Pakistan initiated Operation Topac. There are multiple reasons that enabled the change; radicalisation post-soviet Afghan war which Pakistan put to the best of its use, increased resentment against centre due to 1987 rigging, all factors accounted for and amalgamated in an improvised hybrid operation, plugging gaps that operation Gibraltar and other earlier failed operations had. Since its inception, the bouts of violence rotated between Central Kashmir, Northern Kashmir and South Kashmir, each having its turn, lately springing from north Kashmir to south Kashmir pre and post 2009 respectively. Since then South has sprung up in incidents of civilian violence as well and to this day continues to be a place of interest for not just security establishments but common people of the country as well. This conflict is in modern times a part of Pakistan’s Hybrid warfare operation, Operation Topac even if its roots lie in the Muslim League’s Pakistan/ Lahore declaration. Although incidents of August 5, 2019 and those succeeding the event are unprecedented, its biggest challenge is to survive the test of time, not become another page in the book just like the peace bouts in between the violent ones. Since perception plays a significant role in modern day hybrid warfare, measures that generate a short reach have been initiated in abundance post August 5, 2019; measures that generate a perception of integration domestically as well as internationally. However, the measures of perception management shall not delude us into thinking that the problem has found a solution. To find an actual solution that lasts, measures that have a sustainable reach need to be initiated simultaneously. Particularly after the Afghanistan fiasco, sustainable measures of not just de-radicalisation but counter-radicalisation need to be initiated along with political engagement and empowerment in real terms, of young but legitimate leadership including those of the already existing regional parties, providing sustainable employment generation opportunities including soft loans, creation of Special economic zones to boost local industries, entrepreneurship and skill development programs that are accessible to all youngsters irrespective of their political inclinations along with other sustainable projects need to be imitated; all with an honest intent.