Jammu and Kashmir, often called the “Paradise on Earth,” is renowned for its pristine snow-covered mountains, mesmerising valleys and breath-taking winter landscapes. The region’s heavy snowfall during winter has long been a defining feature, drawing tourists worldwide for winter sports and scenic beauty.
However, in recent years, the decline in snowfall has raised serious concerns among environmentalists, policymakers, and local communities. Decreasing snowfall is not merely a seasonal variation but a complex issue linked to broader climate change patterns, environmental degradation and global meteorological changes. The reduction in snowfall has had cascading effects, from disrupting the region’s economy, which is heavily reliant on winter tourism, to threatening water security, agriculture and biodiversity.
This article explores the underlying causes of declining snowfall in Jammu and Kashmir, its profound impact on winter tourism and the long-term consequences for the region’s environment and economy. Additionally, it will discuss potential solutions to mitigate the crisis and preserve Kashmir’s winter charm for future generations.
Climate change is undoubtedly one of Kashmir’s most significant contributors to snowfall decline. Rising global temperatures, driven by human activities such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation, have led to changes in precipitation patterns worldwide. In the case of Kashmir, climate change has resulted in a shift from snowfall to rainfall, with warmer winters and altered weather patterns.
Over the past few decades, global warming has led to significant shifts in weather patterns worldwide, including in the Himalayan region. The average winter temperatures in Kashmir have increased, altering the precipitation cycle. In December 2024, the region experienced a staggering 79% precipitation deficit, with no snowfall recorded in the plains and significantly reduced snowfall in higher altitudes. The Meteorological Department has reported that winters in Kashmir are becoming increasingly warm with December, which Zero temperatures, now recording daytime temperatures as high as 13°C.
Studies suggest that by the end of the 21st century, snowfall in Kashmir could decline by 30% to 70%, posing a serious threat to the region’s water security and agriculture. Urbanisation and air pollution are often overlooked as contributing factors to the decline of snowfall in Kashmir. However, the rapid urbanisation of the region, driven by population growth and economic development, has led to an increase in air pollution. The resulting aerosols and particulate matter in the atmosphere can alter precipitation patterns, leading to a decrease in snowfall.
Moreover, the urban heat island effect, which occurs when built-up areas absorb and retain heat, can also contribute to warmer winters and reduced snowfall. The combined effects of urbanisation and air pollution can have a significant impact on the region’s climate, exacerbating the decline of snowfall. Western Disturbances are crucial for bringing snowfall to Kashmir during winter. These moisture-laden winds originate from the Mediterranean, Atlantic and Caspian Seas and travel eastward, providing precipitation to the Himalayan region. However, in recent years, their frequency and intensity have diminished.
The number of Western Disturbance events has declined, leading to lower winter precipitation. In December 2023, Kashmir recorded an 80% rainfall deficit in January 2024, there was a complete absence of precipitation. The weakening of these wind systems, possibly due to climate change, has reduced snowfall, significantly impacting the local climate and economy.
El Niño, a climatic phenomenon characterised by the warming of the Pacific Ocean, disrupts global weather patterns and has been linked to dry winters in South Asia, including Kashmir. The ongoing El Niño event has contributed to deficit precipitation, further exacerbating the decline in snowfall. In the past decade 2015, 2018 and 2022 saw dry winters in Kashmir, with very low snowfall.
The decline in snowfall has directly impacted glacier health. Glaciers in the Kashmir region serve as natural reservoirs, storing water that sustains rivers and groundwater supplies. Recent studies indicate that Kashmir’s glaciers have shrunk by 21% in the past few decades. If the current trend continues, the region may experience a 68% glacial loss by the end of the century.
Winter tourism is one of the primary economic drivers in Jammu and Kashmir. Destinations such as Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Sonamarg and Gurez rely on heavy snowfall to attract tourists for skiing, snowboarding and other winter activities. The lack of snowfall has led to a significant decline in tourist footfall. In Gulmarg alone, tourist numbers have dropped by over 60%. Hotels and tour operators, which once thrived during peak winter months are witnessing a sharp decline in bookings.
The hospitality and tourism industries, including hotels, restaurants, transport services and adventure tourism operators, depend heavily on winter tourism. The decline in snowfall has severely affected their revenues. Local businesses that rely on the influx of winter tourists are struggling to sustain themselves, with many shutting down due to financial losses.
Kashmir has long been considered a prime destination for winter sports, attracting professional athletes and adventure seekers worldwide. However, the inconsistent snowfall has disrupted events and competitions. Skiing competitions and snowboarding events have been cancelled or postponed due to the lack of snow cover. The skiing season typically lasts from December to March and has shortened, affecting ski instructors.
The decline in snowfall in Jammu and Kashmir is a pressing issue with far-reaching consequences for the environment, economy and tourism sector. While global climate change is a major contributor, local environmental degradation has exacerbated the problem. Addressing this challenge requires implement sustainable practices and climate resilience strategies. Through proactive measures, Jammu and Kashmir can retain its winter charm and remain a premier tourist destination. Jammu and Kashmir’s winter charm are at risk. Today’s decisions will determine whether the region retains its identity as a winter wonderland or faces a snowless future.
